11Alive's Fantasy Football Blog

From Penny Arcade, a justification for why geeks love fantasy football:

It’s so, so true. Except that, even though I’m a geek, I’ve always loved football. And I even played sports in high school. (Wrestling, not football, but still, it’s a sport…)

The best laid plans…

11Alive League: Engineer Doug J. still has LT and TO and is up by 14 points. I will lose.

Chesley’s League: Producer Alexander Q. is up by 80 points, and even with LT and the Patriots D still to play, there’s no chance I’ll come anywhere close. But I did predict that Alexander would beat me, so it’s not QUITE so painful.

Fraternity League 1: Final score — 155 to 88. I lose. He had AP and the Eagles defense, which together accounted for almost as many points as my entire team.

Fraternity League 2: Final score — 117 to 73. I lose. He had Drew Brees.

And, possibly worst of all… I was at the Falcons game, and the Dolphins lost 19-7… and it wasn’t even that close, with the Dolphins TD coming at the very end of the fourth quarter. At least I can take heart in the Dolphins defense holding a strong Falcons offense to only 19 points. Though it would’ve been 26 if Jason Elam hadn’t missed so many kicks. Seriously… what happened?

On the bright side, I’m up by 11 in my IDP league with LT still to play. He has a DB on the Patriots defense, which is a little worrying (I expect Trent Edwards to throw a lot of INTs), but I think LT will offset that.

I’m going to go lick my wounds now.

Odds are good you had your fantasy draft on Labor Day or before — if you’re unlucky, you had it in the first half of August. In the intervening time, you’ve watched the NFL news wires like a hawk (perhaps even a Seahawk), making sure your players are ready for the upcoming season.

And you’ve had time to stew.

Producer Alexander Quince, during both the drafts he and I participated in, had this maxim:

Think long, think wrong!

That particular aphorism can be applied to lineups as well. Tonight is the first game of the season, and it’s likely either you or your opponent has one Steeler or one Titan playing tonight. If you drafted Chris Johnson, you’re wondering if you should sit him against Pittsburgh’s vaunted defense, perhaps starting Brian Westbrook and Ray Rice instead. Or maybe you have Santonio Holmes as one of your wide receivers and you’re worried that Wes Welker, who’s playing Monday night and is also on your team, might sit with an injury. Do you start Holmes, or do you gamble on Welker?

It’s enough to give even a casual fantasy player fits.

So don’t worry about it.

Go with your stars in week one. If you have Johnson, Westbrook, and Rice, you start Johnson and Westbrook, with Rice in the flex (if you have one). You don’t sit Johnson just because he’s playing a good defense. And you know how Bill Belichick is with injuries; Wes Welker will play on Monday — that’s five days away. Start Welker and whoever your #2 is (Ochocinco or Cotchery or whomever you picked), and let Santonio Holmes sit on the end of your bench.

I’m active in several fantasy football communities, and I’ve dispensed the same advice for the past week: start your starters unless they’re clearly ruled out. Obviously you don’t start Pierre Thomas or Marshawn Lynch — Thomas is injured and Lynch is suspended — but if you drafted McNabb as your starting QB, you don’t sit him just because Carolina’s got a good defense or because your backup (say, Carson Palmer) has a good matchup.

There are situations in which you want to play matchups — if your QBs are David Garrard and Joe Flacco, or if you went WR-heavy early and only have Kevin Smith, Darren McFadden, and Cedric Benson as your RBs. But if you have a well-balanced team, you start your starters in week one.

For reference, here’s my starting lineups in week one:

11Alive League:
QB: Jay Cutler
RB: Steve Slaton, Brian Westbrook
WR: Wes Welker, Hines Ward
Flex: Ray Rice
TE: Visanthe Shiancoe
D: Patriots
K: Jeff Reed
Bench: K.Walter, D.Mason, F.Jackson, C.Pennington, B.Celek, L.Betts, C.Henry(CIN)

Chesley’s League:
QB: Jay Cutler
RB: LaDainian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook
WR: Wes Welker, Hines Ward, Kevin Walter
TE: Visanthe Shiancoe
D: Patriots
K: Kris Brown
Bench: P.Thomas, R.Rice, D.Mason, J.Flacco, D.Bess

See anyone on either bench that deserves to start over who’s already in there? My only question would be to possibly start Mason over Walter in Chesley’s league, but I have my reasons for picking Kevin Walter — specifically, he benefits from double-coverage against Andre Johnson, and if Johnson goes down, Walter will rarely face double-coverage.

There are compelling arguments for starting most of my bench players — Mason is a reception machine, Flacco has a great matchup, Rice (in Chesley’s league) also has an easy matchup, Fred Jackson is starting this week — but why start them over guys I picked sooner.

Everyone calm down. Start your starters. You’ll be happier in the long run.

I’m in one IDP league, and it’s a doozy. While you pick a team defense in most leagues, in this league you pick an entire defense — ten defensive starters. It adds a whole new angle to drafting.

You’d think so, anyway.

Drafting out of the fourth position, and with Peyton Manning as my keeper, I didn’t draft a defensive player until the 11th round or so — Justin Tuck, DE-NYG — and then didn’t draft any more defenders until I was satisfied with my offensive players. Unless your IDP league rewards defensive play with overly-heavy scoring, don’t waste a high draft position on an IDP. There are just too many good defenders.

My defensive squad:

DB: Chris Gamble (CAR), Troy Polamalu (PIT), Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (ARZ), Quintin Mikell (PHI)
LB: Curtis Lofton (ATL), Ernie Sims (DET)
DL: Justin Tuck (NYG), Ray Edwards (MIN)
DL/LB: Terrell Suggs (BAL), Mathias Kiwanuka (NYG)

Notice what I did with those last two guys: they can play in two different positions. That means I had the option to draft more DL (defensive lineman) or LB (linebacker) players. I couldn’t find any DB/LBs (defensive back) — I think they call those safeties.

Like with a regular draft, you can’t get superstars at every position. The guys I picked highest were, in order, Tuck, Polamalu, and Suggs — one at each position.

You probably won’t be in many leagues like this. However, there are tricks to drafting good value at IDP:

1. Don’t break the seal. You should never be the first person to draft an IDP. There’ll always be an offensive player worth more.
2. Don’t be a lemming. Just because everyone else is drafting IDPs doesn’t mean you should. There are more than 750 defensive players in the NFL, and probably only 12 teams in your league. That’s a pretty good ratio. You won’t possibly need to pick your IDP before the 12th round, and you can probably get a good one even later than that. You do want to pick him before you pick your kicker, though.
3. Know who to pick. Do a little research: know who’s on good teams and who’s on bad teams, but beyond that, know if a team has a better rushing defense versus passing defense. Drafting Tuck and Suggs is good because the Giants and Ravens have good rushing defenses. If your team rewards more for interceptions, pick a guy on a good passing defense. And remember, teams that suck on offense make a lot of defensive plays, so you could make your bones on tackles if they’re rewarded highly enough (for example, one point per).
4. Don’t be afraid to swap your IDP mid-season. Like I said, more than 750 defensive players.
5. Don’t carry a backup IDP. If you really like your IDP, then when he goes on bye grab another one. But don’t waste a roster spot on a backup.
6. Don’t try to package a trade with an IDP. No one will care. If you’re trying to get Matt Forte and you’re offering Steve Smith (CAR) and Ray Lewis, you’re only offering Steve Smith.
7. Pay attention to defenders who play on offense and special teams. The year that Mike Vrabel caught all those TD passes, I had him as my IDP (in a single-IDP league). When Devin Hester was a CB/KR, he was great for IDP. And on that note, my final tip:
8. If your league rewards for special-teams play, your IDP should be a kick returner. Self-explanatory.

IDP leagues can be really interesting, and they add a cool wrinkle to fantasy football. Just don’t overvalue your IDP.

Fantasy football is not about your favorite teams. It’s not about your favorite players. It’s not about who played at what college or who used to be on which squad. It’s about one thing:

How many fantasy points will a player get you?

Now, there are guys I won’t take in fantasy drafts for various reasons, most notably because I’ve been burned in the past. Frank Gore, Steven Jackson, and Terrell Owens are three such guys (though I almost drafted TO last night in one of my alumni leagues). But I don’t have a personal stake in any of them.

I’ve been a Dolphins fan all my life — since before Marino was on the team. I particularly despise the Patriots, and I don’t much care for the Cowboys either. But that won’t stop me from drafting Wes Welker, Tom Brady, Marion Barber, or Nick Folk. And even though I’m a fan, I’m not going to automatically draft Pennington, Ronnie Brown, Ted Ginn, or Anthony Fasano.

I do have a token Dolphin on all my teams — usually a receiver taken in the last round or Chad Pennington as my backup QB (he has favorable matchups midseason) — but I don’t go out of my way to pick anyone I actually like.

On Tuesday night, drafting with my fraternity brothers, I couldn’t help but shake my head in dismay as two extremely-capable fantasy footballers made statements I simply could not understand:

• SETH: Seth arrived late to the draft and the computer auto-picked his first few players. He ended up with, among others, Jets RB Thomas Jones. Like me, Seth is a huge Dolphins fan, but unlike me, when he saw he had Jones, he sent up a storm of expletives about how much he hates the Jets and is going to get rid of Jones. Now, I wouldn’t have drafted Jones this year — I think by midseason Leon Washington and Shonn Greene will be sharing RB duties for the Jets — but Seth didn’t give a reason like that. He just went on a tear.
• DAN: Dan went to FSU before joining me at UCF for his graduate degree. He is a huge fan of FSU football and makes an effort to draft at least a few guys who played at FSU. I suggested he draft someone — I can’t recall who — and Dan said “I can’t draft him; he’s a Gator.” Seriously? You’re going to give up a high-upside sleeper choice for someone whose biggest draw is that he went to the same college as you? Really? Really?

Homers and haters tend to miss out on great players because they can’t see themselves drafting Cowboys, or Giants, or Patriots, or Jets, or Steelers, or Bengals, or any of the other 26 NFL teams they really love or really despise. And it’s a huge mistake they’re making. Pass on Marion Barber because you’re concerned about his time-share, or draft Santonio Holmes because you think he’ll be a legitimate deep threat. But don’t draft with your heart. You’ll lose every time.