How many fantasy points will a player get you?

Don't hate. (AP photo)

I’ve been a Dolphins fan all my life — since before Marino was on the team. I particularly despise the Patriots, and I don’t much care for the Cowboys either. But that won’t stop me from drafting Wes Welker, Tom Brady, Marion Barber, or Nick Folk. And even though I’m a fan, I’m not going to automatically draft Pennington, Ronnie Brown, Ted Ginn, or Anthony Fasano.

I do have a token Dolphin on all my teams — usually a receiver taken in the last round or Chad Pennington as my backup QB (he has favorable matchups midseason) — but I don’t go out of my way to pick anyone I actually like.

On Tuesday night, drafting with my fraternity brothers, I couldn’t help but shake my head in dismay as two extremely-capable fantasy footballers made statements I simply could not understand:

• SETH: Seth arrived late to the draft and the computer auto-picked his first few players. He ended up with, among others, Jets RB Thomas Jones. Like me, Seth is a huge Dolphins fan, but unlike me, when he saw he had Jones, he sent up a storm of expletives about how much he hates the Jets and is going to get rid of Jones. Now, I wouldn’t have drafted Jones this year — I think by midseason Leon Washington and Shonn Greene will be sharing RB duties for the Jets — but Seth didn’t give a reason like that. He just went on a tear.
• DAN: Dan went to FSU before joining me at UCF for his graduate degree. He is a huge fan of FSU football and makes an effort to draft at least a few guys who played at FSU. I suggested he draft someone — I can’t recall who — and Dan said “I can’t draft him; he’s a Gator.” Seriously? You’re going to give up a high-upside sleeper choice for someone whose biggest draw is that he went to the same college as you? Really? Really?

Homers and haters tend to miss out on great players because they can’t see themselves drafting Cowboys, or Giants, or Patriots, or Jets, or Steelers, or Bengals, or any of the other 26 NFL teams they really love or really despise. And it’s a huge mistake they’re making. Pass on Marion Barber because you’re concerned about his time-share, or draft Santonio Holmes because you think he’ll be a legitimate deep threat. But don’t draft with your heart. You’ll lose every time.

I predict Ray Rice will be my key to victory, and that he'll be a late first-round lock in 2010. (AP photo)

Here’s how I drafted, and my analysis, with round numbers in parentheses:

QUARTERBACK: Jay Cutler (8) — I’m amazed he fell this far, and was very pleased to get him this late.

RUNNINGBACK: LaDainian Tomlinson (1) and Brian Westbrook (2) — Just call me Mr. 2007. I believe LT has enough left for one more great year, and Westbrook, as I said previously, is Westbrook.

WIDE RECEIVER: Wes Welker (3), Hines Ward (6), Kevin Walter (7) — Given that this is a WR-heavy league, I really should’ve drafted WRs sooner, but I’ve got four starting RBs (note my backups, below) and I’m sure I’ll be able to trade at least one of them.

TIGHT END: Visanthe Shiancoe (9) — Same issue as with the other league.

DEFENSE: New England Patriots (12) — A better place to draft them. Not as much of a run on defenses. This league really rewards takeaways, and the Patriots are awesome at that.

KICKER: Kris Brown (13) — Given how highly the Texans scored last year, I predict good numbers all around.

BACKUPS: Pierre Thomas (3) is better than Reggie Bush in non-PPR leagues, though I think I took him too soon. Ray Rice (5) is a steal in the 5th. Derrick Mason (10) will be great for my bye week. Joe Flacco (11) will be a serviceable backup, especially in week 5 when he plays Cincinnati. Greg Camarillo (14) was my flyer pick of the draft; it looks as though he and Davone Bess will split #2 duties, but Camarillo is the veteran in a group that includes Ted Ginn Jr and I’m more likely to pick a veteran when it comes to WR.

FINAL ANALYSIS: I give myself an A- in this draft. I needed to pick WRs sooner, and better ones. Lesson learned. This league will be tougher, but I still think I’m in the top half of teams. Maybe even the top third.

It amazes me that Brian Westbrook fell to me in the second round in two drafts. (AP photo)

Yesterday was the draft for the 11Alive league. I ran it for two years, but this year it’s being run by show producer Rich Hardwick. My last official duty was making sure the draft went smoothly, and I think it did. In this league: our former webmaster, Paul Ossmann (team run by his son Grant), Ted Hall, Tiffany from sales, photojournalist Jon Samuels, Doug from engineering, Shawn Hoder from the CIA, 6pm producer Alexander Quince, web producer Michael King, myself, editor/photographer Drew Kwederas, and show producer Rich Hardwick.

I drafted 10th (of 12). My team — and my analysis, with round selections in parentheses:

QUARTERBACK: Jay Cutler (6) — I may have taken him a tad early, but I was certain he wouldn’t fall to me and he was in my second tier of QBs. Very pleased to see he’s developing a rapport with Greg Olsen.

RUNNINGBACK: Steve Slaton (1) and Brian Westbrook (2) — Slaton was the best available at the time, and I look for good things from him as being pretty much the sole RB in Houston, and Westbrook is Westbrook: great when he’s in there, but only good for 12 games in a season. I only hope that he has his injury troubles early.

WIDE RECEIVER: Wes Welker (4) and Hines Ward (5) — My personal draft philosophy is to take #2 receivers on teams with a superstar #1 so they reap the reward of the other guy being double-covered. Hines Ward is a notable exception, but he’s always dependable and I never balk at drafting him. Welker was the second receiver I targeted after Reggie Wayne, but there was no way Wayne would fall to me in the 3rd or 4th, which is where I targeted receivers.

RB/WR FLEX: Ray Rice (3), Kevin Walter (7), and Derrick Mason (8) — I plan to start Rice most weeks unless the time-share in Baltimore gets too complicated. Walter and Mason really are backup WRs more than anything else, but Walter benefits from the Andre Johnson factor and Mason is a great safety valve for Flacco given Todd Heap’s injury issues. I noticed he wasn’t even drafted in either of my leagues this year.

TIGHT END: Visanthe Shiancoe (9) — I know I took him too early, but there was a run on TEs and I was targeting Shiancoe because of the Favre factor.

DEFENSE: New England Patriots (11) — I think they’re a great second-tier defense, and I’m shocked they’re not ranked higher given their penchant for takeaways.

KICKER: Jeff Reed (16) — It seems like most of my team is off in Week 8, but Reed is a very dependable kicker, and that’s all I care about.

BACKUPS: Fred Jackson (10) will probably be a good option while Marshawn Lynch is suspended, and he may be more valuable later if Lynch can’t get into a rhythm. Chad Pennington (12) plays the Jets in week 5 (Cutler’s bye week), and I look for him to do his usual serviceable job there. Brent Celek (13) is, in the words of Drew, “the sleeper pick of the draft”, and Drew was wicked pissed when I drafted Celek just before he did. Ladell Betts (14) looks to be the third-down back in Washington, and Portis has been known to have injury issues. Chris Henry (15) is challenging for the #2 receiver spot in Cincinnati, and with Ochocinco there, he has the propensity to get free for long catches.

FINAL ANALYSIS: I give myself a B+ in this draft; I would’ve wanted to draft one more starter/heavy-committee RB than I did, and I shot myself in the foot with bye weeks, but overall I think I have one of the top three teams in this league.

I'm not drafting this guy in the first round, but I know SOMEONE will. (AP photo)

This year, I’m in two leagues: one run by show producer Rich Hardwick, and one co-run by meteorologist Chesley McNeil and reporter Matt Pearl. The draft order was picked yesterday.

I got last.

For the first time in my entire fantasy football career, I’m picking last in the first round.

According to ESPN’s most recent rankings, the 12th player to be taken should be Drew Brees. Ahead of him: Andre Johnson, Frank Gore, Larry Fitzgerald, LT, Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, S-Jax, Matt Forte, MJD, Turner, and AP. Now, I’m not under any circumstances taking a QB in the first round. I’m sure someone will, but it won’t be me.

The question is: who will fall to me at the 12th (and 13th) picks? The people in this league know their stuff, so I’m not planning on seeing Johnson or Gore taken in the first round. If I want a top-flight RB in the first round, my pickings will likely be pretty slim — I’m thinking Steve Slaton, maybe Gore, Marion Barber, and Brandon Jacobs. Of those guys, I know which one I’m targeting.

My saving grace might be that there’s some Eagles fans playing in this league, so Westbrook is likely to go earlier in the first round than he probably should.

Once I draft both 11Alive leagues — the other one drafts Sunday afternoon — I’ll talk a little more about my draft strategy, but for now, I have to figure out who my 12th and 13th picks are going to be… and who I’m going to target when the serpentine comes back around to me at the end of the third.